Tuesday, January 8, 2013

My Hypothetical 2013 MLB Hall of Fame Ballot

Results of Major League Baseball's Hall of Faming voting are scheduled to be announced tomorrow, and just like each of the past few years, I'm posting here my hypothetical Hall of Fame ballot.  In other words, if I had a vote, for whom would I vote.  If you've read any of those posts, you know that I have a rather inclusive set of standards for the Hall of Fame -- I'd assume among the more inclusive you will find.  So, consistently, I would want to vote for more than the 10 players to which one is limited.  Given the additions to the ballot this year, that limitation becomes even more pronounced, as I will demonstrate momentarily, and as Jayson Stark has noted and Jim Caple has discussed more specifically and fully.

So, to begin, let's revisit the ballot from a year ago.  Last year, the 10 names I would have chosen were Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff,  Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith, and Alan Trammell.  Had I had the option to vote for more than 10, I also would have included Larry Walker, Don Mattingly, Juan Gonzalez, Edgar Martinez, Bernie Williams, and Ruben Sierra.

Of those names, Larkin was elected last year, while Juan Gonzalez and Ruben Sierra failed to garner at least five percent of the vote on last year's ballot, so each is now removed from the ballot.  The other 13 remain, and they are joined by 24 new players who have reached eligibility.  The newly eligible players include a long list of heavyweights, such as Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa.  To me, all six of those players belong, and the only one about whom I might even entertain doubts Schilling, though those doubts would be very slight, as I looked at his case a few years ago and determined that I found him worthy.

So, I'm adding six names to a ballot that would already have nine holdovers, and that's not even counting the other four I would have liked to have included last year as well as others new to this year's ballot whom I would like to include but for whom I know I wouldn't have room.  In other words, if there was ever a case for the 10-player limit being a problem, this year seems to show it.  I fear a few players who might otherwise have garnered five percent of the vote will fall off the ballot and thus lose eligibility (until they become eligible for the veterans' committee years from now or until the rules change), simply because of the numbers game.  And that is a problem, because while some might say a 10-player limit is good because it forces folks to make difficult decisions, I would argue that it excludes some views of what constitutes a Hall of Famer, like my view, and I would think that the point of having hundreds of voters is that among them we would find a smattering of different philosophies that, put together, create a consensus.  When some philosophies are already excluded, though they needn't be, we fail in gaining an adequate consensus. You know, it's kind of like how democracy is supposed to work ...

All of that said, then, if I had a ballot and, regretfully, could only vote for 10 players, this would, in rough order of my sense of their worthiness for induction, be my ballot:

Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Craig Biggio
Mike Piazza
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa
Rafael Palmeiro
Fred McGriff
Tim Raines
Jeff Bagwell

Perhaps you may have already noticed that despite the fact that I mentioned earlier that I have determined Curt Schilling quite worthy, he's not on that list.  Simply put, there isn't room, and I couldn't justify him over any of the 10 names I've given, and there you go.  Someone I feel is very strongly worthy of induction would not even make my ballot.

Schilling would be number 11 on my list.  Numbers 12 and 13 are a bit heartbreaking, as number 12 Jack Morris came close last year and is in his next-to-last year of eligibility, and number 13 Dale Murphy is in his last year of eligibility.  Meanwhile, I would continue to want to vote for Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Larry Walker, Don Mattingly, Edgar Martinez, and Bernie Williams, in roughly that order.  I now stand at 19 players for whom I would want to vote, and I still need to cover the remaining newly eligible players.

Among such players, the name that most jumps out at me is Kenny Lofton.  He's not a no- or little-doubter like the other six newly eligible players I've mentioned, but a look at his career numbers moves him quite comfortably onto the list of players for whom I'd want to vote, probably at number 14, right behind Dale Murphy.  So, that gives me 20 for whom I'd want to vote, with 17 more players to consider.

Among those remaining 17, two players who amassed more than 2,500 hits and whose resumes look otherwise good are Steve Finley and Julio Franco.  I'd put both of them in rather readily, and then we get to the hard part, and for that, I'd like to say that I erred a couple of years ago.  For the 2011 ballot, I indicated that Kevin Brown would be the first player off my list.  Soon thereafter, I changed my mind on that choice, and in retrospect, I think he belongs.  I say this now because in the end I think that Kevin Brown had a better career than the next player I'm considering, whose pitching career overlapped with Brown's quite a bit:  David Wells.  Wells for me is a very borderline case.  In a lot of ways, his career statistics aren't that far from those of Jack Morris, though I think things like more wins and lower ERA, among other factors, make Morris better, so I don't want to say Wells has as good of a case as Morris.  (For a glance at some of these stats as well as stats for everyone on this year's ballot, see here.)  In the end, the strongest things Wells has going for him are his 239 wins, his perfect game, and his persona.  I think it's just enough, though just barely, which puts me at a total of 23 players for my ballot.

The first one off the list this year is Reggie Sanders, who has some intriguing elements to his resume.  For instance, he's one of only a handful of players who both hit 300 home runs and stole 300 bases.  However, he barely crossed both of those plateaus, and with less than 1,700 hits and a batting average of .267, he doesn't make it.

Nor does Shawn Green, who inched over 2,000 hits (2,003 to be exact), drove in 1,070 runs, and hit more than 300 home runs in his career, all of which provided some basis for consideration but didn't add up to enough to make my list.

Sandy Alomar, Royce Clayton, Jeff Conine, and Ryan Klesko all also had resumes that provided the basis for a little bit of consideration.  So, too, did a trio of relievers -- Roberto Hernandez, Jose Mesa, and Mike Stanton -- who all had some interesting numbers and careers and for whom I did want to make an effort to consider because in general I think relievers are too easily overlooked and because in this particular case all three rank among the top 15 in MLB history in appearances, with Stanton second only to Jesse Orosco on that list.  Yet, in the end, none seemed to warrant inclusion.

Meanwhile, though I did glance at their statistics, Jeff Cirillo, Aaron Sele, Todd Walker, Rondell White, and Woody Williams received only very brief consideration before not making my list.

So, in all, though I could only vote for ten players (and, of course, I can't actually vote for any), I would want to vote for 23 if I had a Major League Baseball Hall of Fame ballot.

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